Anand Menon (The UK in a Changing Europe) joins Keynes and Bown to provide an update on political developments, as well as the shifting timeline, for Britain to depart from the European Union with or without a trade agreement. They also discuss shortages, contingency planning, and the expected initial economic impact if no deal were to arrive.
In Part I, Andrew Duff reports on the latest state of play. A deal is still possible before 31 October. Adjustments can be made to the Irish backstop...In Part II, Duff recalls how the Article 50 process has played out so far. He describes how the guidelines have evolved flexibly while the underlying principles have been retained...In Part III, Duff examines the options for a future association agreement between the UK and the EU...
This briefing focuses on: • The impact of Brexit so far on the UK economy as a whole• New NIESR estimates (based like all our estimates on our economic model NiGEM) of the long-run economic impact of a no-deal Brexit on UK regions• Possible policy responses to a no-deal Brexit
On 9 September 2019, the European (Withdrawal) (No.6) Bill supported by MPs seeking to block a no-deal exit became law. Voting on the Bill in the House of Commons on 4 September 2019 saw 21 Conservative MPs vote against the Government resulting in their expulsion from the party. In an additional vote the same day, Boris Johnson also failed to acquire the two-thirds majority needed to call a general election. Meanwhile, a Scottish court of appeal has ruled unlawful the Government’s decision to prorogue parliament until 14 October, a ruling the Government is appealing. Issue 70 of the Brexit Brief, published by the IIEA’s UK Project Group, considers the implications of these issues for the Brexit debate and collates news from Ireland, the UK and the rest of the EU.
The UK’s Brexit politics in the run-up to the country’s scheduled EU exit on 31 October are engaging an array of laws, conventions and parliamentary procedures. They will feature in what could be an historic constitutional tussle between government and Parliament. This page aims to provide constitutional and procedural information needed to navigate Brexit in Parliament in Autumn 2019. It is a living page, and will be updated and added to in order to reflect developments.
Boris Johnson geht auf Konfrontationskurs: Seit seiner Ernennung zum Premier-minister des Vereinigten Königreichs ordnet er die Agenda seiner Regierung dem Ziel unter, die EU um jeden Preis zum 31. Oktober 2019 zu verlassen – mit zunehmender Wahrscheinlichkeit ohne Abkommen.
No deal issues:• No deal will mean a prolonged period of uncertainty...• Half of UK goods exports will face disruption... • Northern Ireland would be particularly badly hit...• No deal would likely reduce the safety of UK citizens...• The UK’s international reputation may suffer...• Any deal with the EU after no deal would be much more difficult... • The impact on trade would be immediate...• Sterling would almost certainly fall further...• Traders from Northern Ireland crossing the Irish border would face an increased burden...• There would be some disruption to supply chains...
We know that a no-deal Brexit would be disruptive to the British economy. The UK would trade with the EU largely on World Trade Organisation terms, which would mean that tariffs would have to be paid on British goods entering the EU, and checks would be carried out on British products, especially agricultural goods. British banks would no longer be able to sell many financial services directly to EU clients. Checks at the Dover-Calais crossing would lead to lengthy queues, and may lead to shortages of some goods, especially the types of food that Britain largely imports from the EU. But an important question has largely gone unanswered in the British debate: how would negotiations between the UK and the EU after no deal play out?
The UK’s no deal readiness is about more than just government – it means public bodies, individuals, and above all businesses taking action to prepare.Preparations for a no deal exit have been taking place since the referendum in 2016. The government ramped up its preparations in summer 2018, when it started publishing a series of ‘technical notices’ on how public bodies, businesses and individuals needed to prepare for no deal.The EU’s preparations for no deal are another critical factor in determining how ready the two sides are for no deal.
A lot is happening in the United Kingdom. After more than three years since the vote to leave the European Union, the British still remain. Why? What’s making this process so difficult? Will the UK ever leave the EU? Who is Boris Johnson and why does he give Brexit fresh hope?This week, on the "Heritage Explains" podcast, Nile Gardner, director of Heritage's Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, brings us up to speed and breaks down the complex nature of “The Brexiteer.”
The UK’s fiscal watchdog – the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – has published its latest assessment of the risks facing the UK’s public finances. In a document that runs to nearly 300 pages, 90 fiscal risks are detailed. But inevitably most attention has focused on the OBR’s ‘stress test’ of the implications for the UK’s public finances of leaving the EU without a deal...
When the history books of our era are written they will say that Britain had a huge financial crisis, then it left the EU. In those books Boris Johnson’s legacy as Prime Minister will be Brexit – and the politics and economics of Brexit are hard. Hard substantively, because they involve unravelling 40 years of integration. And harder still because politics, like life, is path dependent...
George Brandis, Australia’s High Commissioner in the UK, is joined by our Senior Fellow Professor Jonathan Portes and podcaster James Millar for our latest Brexit Breakdown podcast. They discuss the Australian reaction to the referendum result, how a points-based immigration system in the UK would differ from Australia’s, and even the role of ‘national psyches’. Oh, and Fosters.
On June the 3rd 2019, The International Institute for Peace (IIP), in collaboration with the Sir Peter Ustinov Institute hosted an event Darkest Hour? Churchill myth-making and the great Brexit fiasco. The main speaker was Prof. Dr. Robert Knight, a historian from University College London. Welcome remarks were given by Hannes Swoboda, President of the International Institute for Peace (IIP), while the discussion was moderated by Maryia Hushcha, a project assistant at the IIP.
The 9th legislature of the European Parliament that began on 2nd July is marked by some evident contradictions. On the one hand 751 MEPs were elected in a better manner than any of their predecessors, with a turnout rate of 50.62%, the highest since 1994 - but the traditional balance of Parliament has been overturned, notably with the end of duopoly EPP/PES. On the other hand, the significant rise of the nationalists, populists and Eurosceptics in most Member States is not reflected by an increase in their weight in Parliament. Finally, three years after the 2016 Brexit referendum and the UK’s decision to withdraw from the Union and two months after the 29th March, the initial date set for Brexit, 73 British MEPs have been elected for a mandate that might only last 4 months – if the new date of withdrawal, presently set for 31st October is respected. With the election of Ursula von der Leyen as the President of the European Commission on 16th July the new Parliament has completed the cycle that began with the European elections of 23rd-26th May. Political discussions regarding a possible coalition agreement and the establishment of the parliamentary committees have provided an outline of the what upcoming legislature will be like and in which the certainties of the past have been disrupted by a new political situation.
After three years negotiating the terms of a withdrawal that never seems to arrive, now is a useful time, at the beginning of the new political cycle, for the EU to look inwards and assess the possible consequences of Britain´s absence. For this purpose, it is convenient to reflect on the past, as this is not the first time that it may be necessary to build a Europe without the UK...
Although the UK’s financial services sector continues to suffer from a lack of public trust following the 2007-8 financial crisis, assessing the possible impacts of different Brexit scenarios on this sector is important because of its implications for the nature of economic development in the UK after Brexit. Such an assessment needs to go beyond evaluating how Brexit will impact on current business models...
Free ports are gaining traction as a way to bring jobs and prosperity across the country in a post-Brexit world, with Boris Johnson saying last week that he would set up six if he was to become prime minister. But the next incumbent of Number 10 would be wise to take heed from the findings of our latest report on enterprise zones before committing to new free ports...
Dragging Northern Ireland out of the EU would mean customs and regulatory controls along the border and would disrupt a panoply of North-South cooperation which significantly depends on EU law applying on both sides of the border...
Xerfi Canal a reçu Deniz Ünal, économiste et rédactrice en chef de la collection Panorama du CEPII, pour parler des impacts du Brexit sur l'Europe et la France.Une interview menée par Adrien de Tricornot.
In this paper, Con Lucey examines the emerging post-Brexit food and agriculture policy in three areas: direct payments, external trade, and regulation. It also discusses the future viability of the UK food market for Irish exports in the context of a no-deal Brexit.
The two men competing to become the UK’s next Prime Minister say the Irish border backstop must be ditched. However, an alternative that would both preserve an open border and allow for a fully independent UK trade policy has yet to be found...
The UK has wasted precious time in the Brexit process. A no deal outcome has become the legal and political default. The new prime minister cannot avoid returning to Mrs May’s deal if he is to avoid no deal.Andrew Duff (President of the Spinelli Group; Former Member of the European Parliament 1999-2014) argues for changes to be made not only to the Political Declaration but also to the Withdrawal Agreement itself. One amendment is needed to buy time: the transition period should be made extendable until the final association agreement enters into force. Such a revision will not breach anyone’s red lines, will obviate the need for the Irish backstop, reassure businesses and citizens, and enable an orderly exit.Duff also argues that the British should pay far more attention to the joint governance of the Withdrawal Agreement. The idea that the UK will become a vassal of the EU is nonsense: in fact, the British will be able to wield influence after Brexit if the new prime minister adopts a positive attitude.
Paul Adamson, founder and editor of E!Sharp, an online magazine about the European Union and its place in the world speaks to Professor Anand Menon, director of the academic think tank on Brexit The UK in a Changing Europe on what the UK has ever done for the EU based on 3 broad themes – single market, enlargement and foreign policy.
In this episode, Polly Mackenzie, Chief Executive of Demos and former Liberal Democrats special adviser talks about the Lib Dem leadership contest, the state of British politics and the role of democracy. Polly and James were joined by Professor Anand Menon, director of The UK in a Changing Europe.
In the UK, Pride is a time to both celebrate recent advances and to highlight the many, complex challenges which LGBT+ communities still confront. The limited efficacy of non-discrimination frameworks, deficiencies within LGBT+ asylum processes and on-going controversy surrounding the Gender Recognition Act 2004 are just three (among many) challenges which impede full SOGI-related equality within this jurisdiction.Yet, despite the pressing needs of LGBT+ populations in the UK (as emphasised by the National LGBT Survey), issues relating to sexual orientation and gender identity have – like many other important political concerns – been largely drowned out by the all-consuming Brexit debates...
The UK Government has three separate agreements with the 31 European countries that accept freedom of movement. Each agreement provides a strong level of protection for British citizens.(...) These agreements apply to British citizens who currently live in Europe, or move there during the transition period, but not to British citizens who want to move after the transition has ended. It is not clear whether British citizens living in EU countries will be able to move freely to other EU countries after Brexit. That will be dealt with in the negotiations on the UK’s future relationship with the EU.
The vision for Europe’s future has become increasingly contested and uncertain due to Brexit, the rise of populist parties, and a United States that is often more critical than cooperative. On June 13, Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) held two panels to explore the future of Europe and the trans-Atlantic relationship, as part of the Brookings-Robert Bosch Foundation Transatlantic Initiative. CUSE Director Thomas Wright and Senior Vice President of International Relations America and Asia at Robert Bosch Stiftung Christian Hänel provided opening remarks.
In his address to the IIEA, Douglas Carswell outlines his views on Brexit and the direction in which UK politics is heading. He argues that the perception in Ireland of the forces driving Brexit as atavistic or reactionary is wrong and ultimately dangerous. In his view, both Dublin and Brussels have made serious miscalculations in their approach to Brexit, and these miscalculations increase the chances of an ‘absolute departure’ – and a geopolitical upheaval with the EU’s restless neighbour. About the Speaker: Douglas Carswell is a British former Member of Parliament who in 2014 became the first elected MP for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), representing Clacton. He was previously elected as a Conservative...
Twenty years ago on Monday, the Scottish Parliament acquired the legislative powers that it had been granted under the 1998 Scotland Act. The new body, housed temporarily in the Assembly Hall of the Church of Scotland at the top of the Mound in Edinburgh, was formally opened by the Queen, and the occasion marked by a fly-pass by Concorde and the Red Arrows. The British state signalled its recognition and acceptance of devolution.But today, it is the future of the British state rather than of the Scottish Parliament that seems the more uncertain. The Scottish Government has indicated that it wishes to hold before the next Scottish Parliament election in May 2021 what would be Scotland’s second referendum on whether it should remain part of the UK.
Both candidates for Conservative Party leadership have said they would be willing to take the UK out of the EU without a deal. But there has been very little public information about how the Government plans to cope with a no deal Brexit.At this event, our panel discussed what no deal might mean for the UK, how ‘ready’ both Government and business will be for no deal in October, and how to make best use of the next four months.
It is commonly assumed that Leave supporters want to leave the EU — regardless of the type of Brexit — more than Remain supporters want to remain. But a new YouGov survey of over 1,600 British citizens carried out by academic researchers shows it is wrong. In fact, the opposite is true.
The elections to the European Parliament and the resulting majorities for its political groupings may have an impact on the further fate of Brexit negotiations – even if the rise of right-wing populist parties increases the pressure for a unified and stable EU negotiation position.
Usée par le Brexit, critiquée, Theresa May quitte la tête du Parti Conservateur qui a subi une lourde défaite. Elle a démissionné le 7 juin, mais reste Premier Ministre, le temps de la succession. Qui va mettre en oeuvre le Brexit? Jusqu’où Nigel Farage, grand vainqueur des élections, peut-il peser ?
The Conservative Party leadership contest is underway. There are currently 10 declared contenders for the leadership. They have begun to set out their proposals for government. This explainer looks at what they have set out in various policy areas, including their plans for resolving Brexit.
Both the UK Government and the EU have said that their overriding objective is to reach a Brexit deal that delivers a smooth and orderly exit from the EU. However, the Government has also consistently said that it is willing to leave the EU with no deal if necessary... The UK would not be the only country affected in this scenario, what EU member states likely to be most affected by Brexit are doing to minimise the impact of a no deal outcome ?
On June 7, British Prime Minister Theresa May will resign from her position. Her departure announcement comes while the United Kingdom is still deep in the Brexit crisis that May tried valiantly — though ineffectively — to resolve.
Le propre de la quadrature du cercle est qu’il est impossible d’en sortir. Mme May a pensé le contraire. Depuis juin 2017, nous avons été particulièrement critiques à l’égard de son obstination à croire qu’elle serait capable de « délivrer » son Brexit. Pourtant, aucun signe politique à quelque moment que ce soit ne permettait d’affirmer qu’elle pouvait le faire. La raison en est simple : la composition actuelle du Parlement britannique par rapport aux orientations possibles du Brexit rendait (et rend encore) tout consensus inenvisageable...
No deal is back in vogue – to the extent that it ever fell out of fashion. As Theresa May nears the end, the chancellor Philip Hammond is warning of the risk of a “new prime minister abandoning the search for a deal, and shifting towards a damaging no-deal exit as a matter of policy”.Richard Tice, chairman of the Brexit party, was banging the no-deal drum on the Today programme earlier this week, arguing that a “clean Brexit” (sounds appealing, doesn’t it?) would work out just fine because of the provisions of the World Trade Organization (WTO) treaty.Should his party perform as well as expected in the European elections, expect calls for such an outcome to be redoubled. More and more Conservative MPs will jump on the bandwagon and argue that just getting out of the EU, even with no withdrawal deal, is the only way ahead.This analysis is fatally flawed. It rests on assumptions – dubious, at best –that allow the impact of a so-called clean Brexit to be fundamentally misrepresented. Here’s why.
Will Brexit impact defence and security arrangements between the UK and the EU ?How do the UK and EU cooperate on defence and security now?What does the UK currently contribute to EU defence and security activities ?...
‘Please do not waste this time.’ When EU leaders agreed to extend negotiations with the UK back in April, Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, cautioned exhausted British parliamentarians to refocus on finding a way forward. Six weeks later and with European elections conducted, Britain is leaderless and Brexit is adrift. October will be here in no time.
Given how consequential it may be for hundreds of thousands of Poles living in the United Kingdom, the question of Brexit is strangely absent from the public debate just before European elections. At the same time it is one of the core issues dividing the government and the opposition. How is it possible?
In the context of Brexit and less cooperative governments both in Warsaw and Rome, France and Germany have been realizing that they need new partners to push forward the European integration agenda. Their attention has turned to Spain, the fourth largest economy in the Eurozone, which has been growing robustly for the past five years and is staunchly pro-European. However, there are also doubts whether Spain has the economic and diplomatic muscle as well as the political stability to fill in for other European heavyweights. It also remains unclear whether it even wants to be the third partner in a well-established marriage. Bringing together policy-makers and experts from Germany, France and Spain just two days after the Spanish Parliamentary election of 28th April, we are going to discuss the prospects of “a new Big Three” European cooperation in light of the Spanish election results and the upcoming European elections.
After the British Parliament defeated Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal with the European Union for a second time in mid-March, it narrowly supported a request to the EU for an extended Brexit deadline. This week, May asked for a three-month extension and her European counterparts granted a “flextension.” The deadline was pushed back two weeks, with leaders giving May until April 12 to pass her deal or “indicate a way forward.” If the deal does pass, she has until May 22 to adopt implementing legislation. Although March 29 is no longer the cliff edge, the Brexit endgame is still heading to the wire with no clear way forward.
Das Zusammenwachsen Europas hat zu Wohlstand und Prosperität in den Mitgliedsländern der EuropäischenUnion geführt. Der Einigungsprozess hat in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten wesentlich zur Stabilisierung der Demokratien sowie zur Stärkung der Volkswirtschaften beigetragen. Die EU ist zugleich beispielhaft für die überregionale Zusammenarbeit in den Bereichen Wirtschaft, Verkehr, Dienstleistungen oder auch Raumentwicklung. Jedoch steht sie gleichzeitig vor erheblichen Herausforderungen: Globaler Wettbewerb, wachsende Blockbildung, Populismus, Nachhaltigkeit, Eurozonen-Stabilität oder Brexit. In der Veranstaltung soll die Frage diskutiert werden, wie es um die Europäische Union steht. Warum ist die EU für Bremen und warum ist Bremen für die EU wichtig? Vor dem Hintergrund der Wahl zur20. Bremischen Bürgerschaft und der Europawahl 2019 sind dies zentrale Aspekte. Denn die Regionen können eine Brücke nach Europa schlagen und zur Stärkung von Wohlstand und Wachstum beitragen.
“Populists are whipping up a storm as Europe faces lurch to the right”; “Explained: the rise and rise of populism in Europe”. Headlines about the European Parliament election in May scream that 2019 is set to be Act Three in the Donald Trump and Brexit drama, this time across the European Union. They warn of a grand showdown between those who believe in an open Europe and those who believe in closed national societies, with migration as the key mobilising issue.But are the headline-writers correct? Is this really what is brewing? New research by the European Council on Foreign Relations and YouGov suggests not.