Spécialiste reconnu de l’économie internationale, Richard Baldwin a consacré son dernier ouvrage[1] à l’avenir de l’emploi sous les effets de la globalisation et de la digitalisation. L’auteur voit des télétravailleurs lointains modiquement rémunérés (les télémigrants) et des robots se substituer, dans nos sociétés, à de nombreux cols blancs aujourd’hui épargnés par la concurrence transfrontalière et l’automatisation. Les défis considérables et inédits posés par ces développements ne paraissent pas insurmontables. Des remaniements notables des politiques du travail et de formation seront toutefois indispensables pour limiter la casse sociale et saisir les chances de la connectivité et de l’électronique ubiquitaires...

Women will need to make far more significant transitions compared to men and may find it more difficult to capture new opportunities because of the persistent barriers they face, write Anu Madgavkar, Mekala Krishnan, and Kweilin Ellingrud in Harvard Business Review.

Economic insecurity is a long-standing problem in the United States, and millions today are struggling to get by. Around the country, approximately 80 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, and 40 percent of Americans can’t afford a $400 emergency (Hayes 2017; “Report on the Economic Well-Being of US Households in 2017” 2018). The median annual wage per household today, approximately $50,000 a year, is approximately the same as it was in the 1970s when accounting for inflation (Vo 2012; Desilver 2018). While discussions about the future of work heat up, it is important to recognize that the challenges facing workers today—and in the future—are not new. Insecure, precarious work is increasingly the norm across many sectors of the 21st century economy.

Axios kicked off 2019 with a headline proclaiming: “AI expert warns automation could take 40% of jobs by 2035.” This is the baseline consensus according to Axios future editor Steve LeVine. But is it accurate? And if it is, how can workers and students today prepare? To answer these questions, and many more, we interviewed Brent Orrell.

-Researchers from the University of Oxford and other institutions have sought to predict how many jobs will be displaced by artificial intelligence (AI), but their results have varied widely, from 9 to 47 percent.-Variations in methodology are responsible for the wide range, with one major difference being whether the researchers believed that the entire occupation would be automated or just a specific task.-These studies ultimately say very little about the changing structure of work and even less about the appropriate policy responses; policymakers should proceed with caution.

-France, Germany, and Italy plan to adopt national and European goals on AI, albeit for different reasons.-France’s AI strategy appears to be driven by the conviction that, in addition to creating risks, AI presents opportunities for the economy and society.-In contrast, the German – and, to the extent that one can infer, Italian – approach to AI is markedly driven by fear of losing economic opportunities.-While the French strategy includes a focus on the military and security elements of AI, its German counterpart almost completely neglects this area.-The EU appears to be largely uninterested in AI’s geopolitical importance, but its member states can only influence the global development of AI if they act together.

The automation of production processes is an important topic on the policy agenda in high-wage countries, but evidence of the economic effects of automation at the firm level is limited. This column presents insights on automation from new survey data for Denmark. The findings reveal that variation in the adoption of automation technologies is high, the change in adoption over time is slow, and almost half of Danish manufacturing firms relied greatly on manual production processes in 2010. Increasing international competition from China is a driver for investments in automation.

Automation will produce significant productivity gains that will reshape specific sectors and occupations. These gains are likely to be recirculated, with jobs reallocated rather than eliminated, economic output increased, and new sources of wealth created. The problem is likely to be one of how income and wealth are distributed. Automation could create a ‘paradox of plenty’: society would be far richer in aggregate, but, for many individuals and communities, technological change could reinforce inequalities of power and reward.

In a new working paper, Roosevelt Fellow Brishen Rogers makes the case that automation is not a major threat to workers today, and that it will not likely be a major threat in the near future. However, he contends that existing labor laws allow companies to use new technology—specifically information technology—in ways that give them outsized power over their workers. Ultimately, Rogers argues that policymakers should expand the scope and stringency of companies’ duties toward their workers, and/or they should rewrite the rules in ways that enable workers to push back against the introduction of new workplace technologies.

Africa continues to face a major employment challenge: Put simply,countries are not creating enough jobs. By some estimates, the continent needs to create 15 million jobs annually to meet the demand of the burgeoning labor force. Many analysts are now arguing that the challenge of job creation might be exacerbated by the economic disruptions of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. So, in light of new technologies, I recently examined the challenges to and opportunities for job creation that they present, and I recommend policies for how countries can maximize the benefits of digitization while limiting risks in a recent African Development Bank report, “Creating Decent Jobs: Strategies, Policies, and Instruments.”

New digital technologies are expected to take away many jobs. They will also create several new ones. However, to grasp these new opportunities, everyone must continuously learn new skills. “We will now have to move to a continuum of lifelong learning, which essentially means we have to be lifelong learners,” says Ravi Kumar, president at Infosys, the digital services firm.Kumar sees two big shifts on the jobs front. The first, he says, will be from repetitive tasks to non-repetitive tasks. And the second will be from problem-solving to problem-finding. In a conversation with Knowledge@Wharton in the company’s New York City offices, Kumar discusses how the emerging world of technology will shape the jobs of the future and what it means for individuals, industries and countries.

Western societies have exhibited a continuing worry that automation, particularly automation associated with artificial intelligence, will lead to massive unemployment and the impoverishment of large segments of society. In different epochs, technological change has triggered concerns and social protests. Those concerns date back to the early stages of the industrial revolution and the use of coal-fired weaving machines to automate textile manufacturing, and they continue through to the present-day and adoption of computerized algorithms that “learn” how to automate tasks through the use of data-driven “machine learning.”Western societies have exhibited a continuing worry that automation, particularly automation associated with artificial intelligence, will lead to massive unemployment and the impoverishment of large segments of society. In different epochs, technological change has triggered concerns and social protests. Those concerns date back to the early stages of the industrial revolution and the use of coal-fired weaving machines to automate textile manufacturing, and they continue through to the present-day and adoption of computerized algorithms that “learn” how to automate tasks through the use of data-driven “machine learning”...

On 26 June 2019, the EU’s High-Level Expert Group on Artificial Intelligence (AI HLEG), consisting of fifty two experts drawn from industry, academia and civil society, published Policy and Investment Recommendations for Trustworthy Aritificial Intelligence. They set out the group’s broad vision for a regulatory and financial framework conducive to the development and deployment of trustworthy AI.The Recommendations reflect and expand on the three tenets of the European Commission’s AI strategy, Artificial Intelligence for Europe (25 April, 2018) and the seven key requirements for trustworthy AI listed in the Ethics Guidelines for Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence, (8 April 2019).

The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) is upending the nature of work as we know it. Policymakers are struggling to grapple with this future in the West, but for African countries—and developing countries generally—the outlook appears even more bleak.Advancing technology will narrow the traditional route to economic transformation through manufacturing. This is a matter of when, not if—many of these jobs as we know them will be displaced.Yet tech will transform Africa too, offering new avenues to leapfrog the old systems of the West. To achieve this, African governments, the international community and the tech community must come together to harness the power of the 4IR. If this does not happen now, a new tech inequality will further entrench the gap between the developed and developing world.

New York State Director of Workforce Development Madhuri Kommareddi discussed the state’s strategy to train the workforce for continued economic growth at the Rockefeller Institute in June, focusing on the challenges of filling jobs today while preparing for the workforce demands of the future.“With AI, with automation, with the gig economy, we’re seeing a fundamental restructuring of how jobs are being created,” she said. “This is a national problem, this is also a global problem”...

Automation refers to the substitution of technology for human labor. As tasks become automated, fewer people are required to produce a given amount of output each hour—in other words, each worker becomes more productive. That rising productivity is the mechanism by which workers’ wages rise over time and society as a whole becomes more prosperous. The same thing happens when a firm invests in training that allows each worker to produce more. No one says that training “destroys jobs”...

Technological advances in fields such as artificial intelligence and automation have the potential to fundamentally alter prevailing economic trends. While the effects of these changes are the subject of great debate in the developed world, less discussed has been how they will impact the developing world.Will they challenge traditional paths to development, removing rungs from a ladder such as growth through export led manufacturing, as automation allows firms to “reshore” production in high-wage countries? Will they offer new routes for development, leading to global value chains in professional services and other previously-localised jobs?This panel will explore what emerging technologies mean for both the traditional models of development and the future of job creation in developing countries.

An online survey of 2,235 UK residents between the ages of 16 and 75 was carried out 26th April and 1st May 2019by the University of Hertfordshire with fieldwork and data collection byIpsos MORI, funded in association with the Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS), the Trades Union Congress (TUC) and UNI Europa. This built on an earlier survey carried out between January 22ndand January 26th. 2016 of 2,238 adults aged 16-75 also by the University of Hertfordshire, with fieldwork carried out by Ipsos MORI and funding from FEPS and UNI Europa.

Le thème de l’économie de plateforme et de ses enjeux sociaux suscite depuisquelques années un intérêt académique et un débat social soutenu. Nombre d’études sont publiées sur ce thème, et pourtant le sujet demeure difficile à appréhender tant les données précises et fiables manquent — en particulier entermes de poids économique et de volume d’emploi — pour en saisir précisémentles contours. Autre difficulté : l’économie de plateforme rassemble sous une expression générique une grande diversité de modèles d’entreprise.(...) ce projet joint à l’approche juridique un cadre général d’analyse que l’on pourrait qualifier d’historico-prospectif, mettant en contexte l’évolution des rapports sociaux de production au prisme des évolutions technologiques. Cette approche complémentaire permet de sortir des débats stériles trop souvent réduits à des questions simplistes : les robots vont-ils « voler nos emplois » ? Les plateformes numériques vont-elles détruire nos modèles sociaux ?

Our purpose is to set out the best evidence of conditions, their causes and effects, and to provoke an informed and constructive dialogue as to what policies and practices would produce a fair, harmonious, and productive so-ciety. The objectives of policy ought to be to stimulate productivity and growth from technological innovation, realize the efficiencies of global rationaliza-tion of production and trade, and achieve an income distribution that pro-duces an equitable result in society...

Traditionally, boosting growth has been seen as the best way to create job opportunities and raise living standards. But governments should now look at this the other way around: by better equipping their citizens to navigate the world of work, countries can most effectively boost their economic growth and development...

An immense rise in automation by means of industrial robots has taken place. Figures from the International Federation of Robotics reveal that while automation was almost an unkown phenomenon in the 1970s, with fewer than 3000 industrial robots installed worldwide, the operational stock of robots is nowadays already approaching 2.5 million...

Thomas Farrar speaks to Terah Lyons, founding executive director of the Partnership on AI, about what artificial intelligence means for society and the labour market, and whether governments have the power or expertise to regulate it.

The age of automation, and on the near horizon, artificial intelligence (AI) technologies offer new job opportunities and avenues for economic advancement, but women face new challenges overlaid on long-established ones. Between 40 million and 160 million women globally may need to transition between occupations by 2030, often into higher-skilled roles. To weather this disruption, women (and men) need to be skilled, mobile, and tech-savvy, but women face pervasive barriers on each, and will need targeted support to move forward in the world of work.

Rapid and deep technological changes driven by the digital revolution, together with globalisation and demographic changes, are creating many new job opportunities but also new challenges. In particular, these transformations are contributing to the rise in non-standard forms of employment –self-employment, temporary work, and ‘independent contracting’...

Même si les travailleurs des plateformes ne sont que 200 000 en France, soit 0,8 % des actifs occupés, il convient de s’y intéresser rapidement tant les plateformes ont créé une nouvelle façon de trouver et d’exercer un travail et tant elles jouent déjà un rôle central pour certaines catégories de travailleurs. C’est pourquoi l’Institut Montaigne a engagé une enquête statistique inédite sur les coursiers à vélo (réalisée en ligne auprès de plus de 800 travailleurs de plateformes), 22 entretiens individuels ainsi que 3 focus groups, afin de comprendre les enjeux de ces nouvelles formes de travail, et proposer des solutions pour encourager un développement responsable des plateformes de travail à la demande, respectueux des intérêts des travailleurs et soutenable sur le long terme.

Current estimates suggest that over the coming decades, slower population growth and lower labor force participation will constrain the supply of labor in the U.S. The U.S. labor force will also become more diverse as immigration and fertility trends increase the size of minority populations...

The first analysis of the AI:NY series explored how artificial-intelligence-enabled automation will affect New York’s labor force in the coming years. The study found that 53 percent of jobs in New York could potentially be automated in coming years using technology available today.

The future of the Canadian economy holds opportunities for women but to capture them, women will need to successfully reskill and transition.

We are used to thinking about artificial intelligence (AI) in the future tense, speculating how technological developments in this area will affect us. But if we spend too much time trying to figure out what to expect in the future, we risk not seeing that AI and robotisation have already started transforming our daily lives.

The increased use of algorithms to automate decisions promises to speed up operations for private companies and governments alike. However, it also raises concerns about how algorithms arrive at their decisions, especially ones with negative consequences for individuals or society as a whole. Many algorithms draw inferences from existing data when making decisions, and are susceptible to magnifying existing biases when they receive unrepresentative data. To explore these issues, the Center for Technology Innovation hosted an event on May 22 at the Brookings Institution. The event featured a keynote speech by Cathy O’Neil, author of the book “Weapons of Math Destruction,” and a panel discussion with the authors of a new Brookings report titled “Algorithmic bias detection and mitigation: Best practices and policies to reduce consumer harms.”

Given the infinite variety and quantity of data that requires labeling and the ravenous appetite that all kinds of commercial entities have for that data, the big high-tech firms are turning to developing countries for educated but inexpensive labor. Across Asia and Africa, firms like Google, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Yahoo! are employing low-cost tech workers to do the work of labeling the world. These jobs typically pay between $3 and $6 per day which, as the author says, is “chump change” to Big Tech but often the best job on offer for workers in developing countries...

The grand committee, which held its inaugural meeting in the United Kingdom last year, is made up of politicians from Canada, the United Kingdom, Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, France, Ireland, Latvia and Singapore. This year, the committee members are joined by representatives from Estonia, Ecuador, Mexico, Morocco, and Trinidad and Tobago.Representatives of Facebook, Twitter, Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and the Mozilla Foundation are all scheduled to appear before the committee. Top Facebook executives Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg have even been subpoenaed, although they have ignored the request to testify. Kevin Chan, head of public policy for Facebook Canada, will answer questions instead.The grand committee has already agreed to five principles, set out in a declaration signed last November...

Artificial intelligence promises economic growth as well as creating fear for those whose jobs it may replace. This column takes a wider approach to examining how AI and other technologies will affect citizens’ welfare beyond just their income. It argues that the new technologies are intrinsically neither good nor bad, it is how they are deployed and how the transition is crafted that conditions the welfare dynamics of societies.

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.) made headlines by calling for “taxing the robots” of the emergent digital economy. That followed her previous call for a 70% top marginal income-tax rate on the richest and Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D., Mass.) plan for a 2% wealth tax on assets worth more than $50 million (and 3% on assets worth more than $1 billion)...By putting inequality front and center on the political agenda as the U.S. heads into the election season, Democratic politicians are trying to capture the populist zeitgeist.

Professor David Engstrom and law student Cristina Ceballos discuss artificial intelligence and whether it can help or hinder important decision making by the federal government?

In order for the UK to have informed policy decisions and look after its most vulnerable, there is aneed to understand fully the changes that are occurring, and could take place, in the world of work. These include socio-economic change, demographic trends, technology advancements, greater levels of globalisation, evolving skill demands and acultural shift among younger workers. Informed policy decisions should help ensure employment rates remain high and that no one is left behind, allowing the market mechanism to work properly and intervening where needed. Work is avital route out of poverty and central to future prosperity...

An era of autonomous robots and self-learning software is upon us. Many industrialized economies are being transformed by the increasing automation of work as countries enter the ​“second machine age” or the ​“fourth industrial revolution,” as the World Economic Foundation called it. Predictions vary on what automation will eventually mean for the future of work. The purpose of this discussion paper is not to argue that either of these two perspectives is the correct one, but rather to direct attention toward those particular factors that influence the uptake of automation technologies. There is a tendency in the current discourse on automation and the future of work to presuppose that impressive advances in hardware and software mean that widespread automation — and its consequences — are inevitable. Yet, technology alone is not deterministic of the future and advancements in robots and algorithms are not the sole drivers of automation. This discussion paper takes a more critical look at a number of social, regulatory, economic, and infrastructure and capital factors that are driving or inhibiting the automation revolution....

Cette note de prospective examine si les plates-formes de travail numériques doivent être traitées comme des agences d’emploi privé. Des plateformes comme LinkedIn sont généralement perçues par le grand public comme de simples réseaux sociaux. Toutefois, sous cet aspect avenant, elles agissent aussi comme un service d’emploi. Cet article se consacre de manière plus précise à l’un des principes centraux des normes internationales du travail relatives aux agences d’emploi, en vertu duquel les demandeurs d’emploi ne peuvent être tenus de supporter des honoraires ou des frais pour les services de recherche d’un emploi, à moins que ces honoraires ou frais n’aient fait l’objet d’une approbation d’une autorité compétente.

Mireille Bruyère sur le travail

Alors que les difficultés de recrutement d’emplois qualifiés risquent de s’accentuer avec la diffusion des technologies et de l’intelligence artificielle, les entreprises peuvent améliorer l’appariement entre leurs besoins de compétences et celles détenues par les individus.

Comment rendre accessible le code du travail ? Comment penser un code du travail du futur, en utilisant tout le potentiel des nouvelles technologies ? En partenariat avec Matrice, programme d’innovation et d’entrepreunariat créé à l’École 42, la Fondation Jean-Jaurès a reçu des étudiants qui ont présenté leurs idées d’un nouveau code de travail, aux côtés notamment de Myriam El Khomri.